[The following article was written before the federal elections held in Mexico on July 1. As expected, the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) gained an overwhelming majority of the 300 contested seats in the Chamber of Deputies. The Communist Party received some 5 percent of the votes; according to the provisions of President López Portillo's "political reform," the CP needed 1.5 percent to obtain permanent ballot status.]
The July elections for the Chamber of Deputies in Mexico have a special impor tance. They are the first federal elections to take place under President López Portillo's "political reform," and they come at a time when the country is going through a full economic recovery as a result of intensive exploitation of the oil deposits discovered recently.
This gives the current election a different significance than preceding ones. For three years the objective has been to install a Chamber of Deputies composed exclusively of "official" parties-those recognized as legal by the government and its party, the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party).
Now that the "political reform" is in force, the electoral strength of the Mexican left-illegal and clandestine for decadeswill make itself felt. The legalization of the Communist Party and the Socialist Workers Party indicates this, as does the indirect legalization of the Revolutionary Workers Party (PRT), the Mexican section of the Fourth International. The PRT has been recognized as a "political association," an intermediate status between absolute illegality and complete legality.
Mexico's political situation is becoming more and more contradictory. A broadbased economic boom is under way, and changes are taking place in the economic and social character of the country. The
"political reform" has coincidedespecially since mid-1978—with a substantial economic recovery that López Portillo has managed to bring about by staking everything on petroleum.
Economic growth surpassed 6% in 1978 and will reach 7% this year. Everything
Sapain
JOSE LOPEZ PORTILLO
indicates that in 1980 the Mexican economy could experience a rather different tendency from the rest of the world, which will be in the midst of a generalized recession.
The situation has sparked growing interest among the imperialists, who are rushing to sign contracts and make investments. The government estimates that foreign investment will rise by around 70% this year and reach $1.5 billion by 1982. The June 5, 1979, Financial Times reported that 260 investment projects are under study in various foreign ministries.
Financially, the Mexican economy becomes more tied to the international system of imperialist capital with each new oil discovery. The "oil business" gives the Mexican government new attractive power for credit institutions, which are ready to offer their capital. Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), the state oil company, is obtaining one opening after the other in the main European and U.S. credit markets.
The Japanese banks are also very active. Despite the high price of Mexican oil, Japan is prepared to provide important credits for improving the infrastructure of Mexico's Pacific ports-a prerequisite for oil export—in order to enjoy a secure source of supply.
The June 5 Financial Times noted: "Just as foreign bankers queue up to offer capital to a government whose already high international debt seems to grow still bigger after each new oil discovery, foreign investors who were once quite critical of the controls on investment in Mexico are now eager to accept the same conditions with far less reticence."
The foreign debt has been growing so fast that it is now estimated at $35 billion. Combined with Brazil's $40 billion debt, the two represent nearly 80% of the total foreign debt of Latin America.
The political consequences of this turn in Mexico's economic strategy are quite important. It has been clear since the 1950s that the Mexican government favors the growing absorption of foreign (imperialist) capital in order to develop the country's economy. It has thus practically abandoned the bourgeois-nationalist course of the Cárdenas epoch. But all presidentseven the most proimperialist, like Díaz Ordaz-have tacitly respected Cárdenas's dogma: "Mexican oil for the Mexicans."
In changing the nationalist course entirely (a change prepared by the "nationalist" President Echeverría), President López Portillo will have to justify himself.
As in all petroleum-producing countries, the Mexican government and bourgeoisie are profiting from the worldwide changes taking place at the expense of imperialism. They are now able to appropriate a growing share of the surplus value that was once taken directly by the big imperialist companies. The fabulous profits from oil income widen the Mexican government's room for maneuver. Carter's visit to Mexico in February showed the whole world that López Portillo could have relations with the president of the United States that are different from earlier times when Mexican presidents were simply the servants of the imperialist center.
López Portillo established two axes for his oil policy-to get out of the precarious economic situation the country went through in 1976-77, and at the same time to reinforce his international position, with the United States above all.
A third element is now appearing on the national political scene-the government's policy toward the working masses. López Portillo thought the problem would be resolved with propaganda about the "alliance for production" upheld by the union leaders (charros) that control the majority of Mexico's workers organizations.
But the government's propaganda about the projects carried out with oil money and the new perspectives of economic recovery (and the enormous mass of profits realized by private enterprise shows that "good times" are returning for the capitalists!) has been so "effective" that workers have begun to mobilize for their demands.
López Portillo's not so tactful intervention at the May Day parade of 1 million workers in Mexico City fell flat. The president declared that despite everything the wage ceiling of 13.5% would be maintained. The figures of a number of banks show that the annual inflation rate in Mexico has surpassed 20%, and the government itself considers 17% the most appropriate index for 1979 (as against the 13% goal set at the beginning of the year!).
Such inflation, the 1 million Mexicans who cross the northern border annually to seek work, the current 40% unemployment rate, the 1 million youth who enter the labor market each year, and so many other equally complicating phenomena that are accumulating-all this makes Mexico a country rich in contradictions and social tensions.
In face of this, it is evident that disagreements over what course to take would be felt sooner or later. In fact, the consequences have already begun. After the huge workers march in May, a "minor" political crisis occurred with the departure of three cabinet ministers, including Interior Minister Reyes Heroles. The most important political figure in the government after the president, Heroles was the architect of the "political reform," the plan for "liberalization" of the regime, which has gone too far to suit the taste of certain sectors of the PRI and the government itself.
Instead of "reforming" the all-powerful PRI, the party's new president retreated and added some of the most reactionary "establishment" politicians to the apparatus. In the Congress, internal rules designed to streamline the body's functioning were rejected. But more important is the fact that the "political reform" was beginning to cause conflicts inside the official apparatus itself. The charros-the faction closest to the masses-complained of discontent among the workers and demanded more serious measures from the government to partially satisfy it.
The departure of the liberal minister thus represented, if not a turn in the "political reform," at least a clearer understanding on the part of the bourgeoisie that political conditions are becoming more and more difficult.
As a May 21 declaration of the PRT Political Bureau points out, the revolutionary sectors must reinforce themselves and prepare their organizations for the sudden changes to come, which are already indicated by recent events. In particular, it is necessary to prepare to intervene in the future mass movements against López Portillo's austerity policy, which despite certain gains has not really been able to smash the workers' resistance.
All this makes clear the important role the July elections will play. They presage the development of working-class independence and autonomy. A fundamental sector of this class will for the first time vote for an alternative to the PRI that has succeeded in gaining legalization.
Owing to the limits of the "political reform," only the reformist parties, including the Communist Party, will be able to share in these votes, since only they can present candidates.
Revolutionary militants must fight to accelerate and systematize this historie process toward autonomy and independence for the class that has already displayed its revolutionary potential.
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