(The following article appeared in the December 18, 1975, issue of Inprecor, a fortnightly news bulletin published by the United Secretariat of the Fourth International.]
At the end of 1975 the international capitalist economy is still dominated by recession conditions. Granted, there were many signs of upturn in the economy of the United States during the third quarter. Economic activity in West Germany and Japan has ceased to decline. A small new rise in the prices of certain raw materials may reflect the beginning of a reversal of the trend in international trade. But the persistence of very high unemployment rates and, most important, the stagnation of productive investment in all the imperialist countries have put the brakes on any genuine upturn so far. These factors even threaten to cause a "rupture" in the upturn in the United States. The overall verdict is clear: the inflationary "pump-priming" measures of most of the imperialist governments have not had the desired effects within the time lapses counted on. A real general upturn of the international capitalist economy will probably not take place until well into the first half of 1976, perhaps not until the third quarter of 1976.
Recession & Upturn
During the summer of 1975 industrial production continued to drop in all the imperialist countries without exception, driving home and intensifying by its cumulative effects the nature of the 1974-75 recession as a generalized economic recession. During autumn, industrial production turned up in the United States and registered a slight upturn in West Germany and Japan. While the fall in industrial production remains broadly inferior to the decline that occurred during the 1929-33 crisis and while the decline will be of shorter duration (which justifies designation of the present conjunctural phase as "general recession" rather than "slump"), it nonetheless goes considerably beyond any reductions in industrial production registered since the World War:
Fall in Industrial Production During in August 1975
-12.5
United States
-14
Japan
-12
West Germany France
- 9
Britain
- 6 -12.2
Italy end of the Second the Year (in %)
in November
- 8
-10.5
- 3
- 3
- 9
-15
As of November 1975 forecasts on gross national products (in real terms) for the whole of the year of 1975 were as follows: real terms) for the whole of the year of toro were as tonows. 180