[The following article appeared in the November 16 issue of La Gauche, weekly newspaper of the Ligue Revolutionnaire des Travailleurs (Revolutionary Workers League), Belgian section of the Fourth International. The translation is by Intercontinental
Press.]
Oil blackmail. Petroleum warfare. In the Western press there is no lack of "indignant declarations" characterizing the current crisis. The secretary general of NATO even stated that he considered the cutoff of oil supplies from the Arab states as the equivalent of a declaration of war. And that could justify armed intervention. Moreover, it is known that elite American troops recently have been training in desert warfare.
In truth, for capitalist industry the stakes are high. While Arab oil currently accounts for only about 6-8 percent of American oil imports, the upper limits of U.S. production are such that in spite of the exploitation of the Alaskan deposits, coming years will see a big increase in imports of Arab oil (to as much as 40 percent of total oil imports by 1980).
As for Europe, it gets about 65 percent of its oil from the Middle East, and even if it seeks to broaden its sources (the North Sea, Nigeria, etc.), it will be impossible for it to get by without the petroleum of the Arab- Persian Gulf.
In fact, while production from Arab countries now accounts for about 30 percent of world oil production, the same countries hold nearly 60 percent of total world reserves. So the stakes, which are already high today, will rise still higher during the next ten or twenty years.
But to really understand imperialism's "oil strategy," we have to look at the various stages of production, transport, and marketing (refining, distribution).
Until 1970 some 90 percent of Middle East oil production was controlled by seven giant companies. They are called the seven sisters and they account for about 60 percent of total world oil production. Of the seven, five are American: Standard Oil of California, Exxon, Texaco, Mobil, Gulf; one is British: British Petroleum; and one is Anglo-Dutch: Royal Dutch Shell.
Since 1970, there have been some nationalizations, by Libya and Iraq among others, and it is planned that the Arab states will control 51 percent of production within a few years.
The consequences of this measure can be minimal if the governments in Europe and the United States can make sure of the maintenance of "loyal" regimes. That is the basis of American imperialism's whole Middle 1382
East policy, which is aimed at securing leadership for Saudi Arabia. The Anglo-French-Israeli attack of 1956 and the Israeli attack of 1967 were aimed at isolating Egypt and depriving it of the preponderant role it was playing under Nasser's management, and at dealing a death blow to the progressive nationalist regime in Syria.
it can be stated that this policy has been fully successful. The rightward turn of the Arab world under the leadership of Saudi Arabia's King Faisal is implacably under way.
FAISAL: Saudi king slated by U.S. imperialism to be "reasonable" Arab leader.
That it continue is the second requirement of European and American policy. While the social and political evolution now under way in the Peoples Democratic Republic of Yemen [South Yemen], in Dhofar, and in Muscat and Oman does not represent an immediate threat to the outlets for Arab oil, American imperialism nevertheless understands that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. The strategy? First, launch armed attacks against South Yemen and support the Sultan of Muscat, Faisal's army and some Libyan experts doing their bit. And then, control the strategic points.
There are four main oil outlets in the region:
1. The Persian Gulf and the Straits of Hormuz that command the gulf.
Surveillance of the gulf and the straits has been assigned to the Iranian regime, which in 1972 occupied several islands at the mouth of the gulf. American bases maintained in the region help to fulfil this mission.
2. The mouth of the Red Sea. The "security" of the entrance to the Red Sea is guaranteed by the Ethiopian government, an important pawn of imperialism in East Africa. The United States maintains, among others, a military base in Kagnew, Ethiopia. Further, the Israeli army is installed on certain islands off the coast of North Yemen. Because of the importance of access to the Red Sea, Egyptian troops recently took control of the Bab el-Mandeb straits at the extreme southern end of the Red Sea.
3. The far north of the Red Sea. One part of this outlet, the Suez Canal, is blocked, which strongly hinders the European oil companies, which must sail their oil around Africa. But it also hampers movement of the Soviet fleet between the Mediterranean and the Indian Ocean. So we can see who is interested in reopening the Suez Canal to navigation.
The other outlet in the northern end of the Red Sea is the Elat-Ashkelon pipeline on Israeli territory. Its capacity is scheduled to be doubled. It transports not only Iranian oil, but also petroleum products originating in Saudi Arabia. Nevertheless, the closing of the pipeline because of the blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb cannot have great consequences for the supply of oil to Israel. The Egyptian oil wells in the Sinai now being operated by the Israeli occupiers produce almost all the oil used by the Zionist state. Only a very small part of Israel's oil needs are supplied through the port of Elat. Hence, nearly all the oil arriving in Elat is piped through to Ashkelon and loaded on tankers for Europe.
4. Finally, part of Saudi Arabian and Iraqi production is transported through pipelines leading to Lebanese and Syrian ports. The recent war partially cut off this necessary supply source for the Europeans (deliveries of Saudi Arabian oil through the pipeline were reduced by half; the terminal at the Syrian port of Tartus was destroyed). But aside from the cur-
rent conflict, it has been crucial for U.S. imperialism to establish tighter control over this region. Definitive liquidation of the Palestinian resistance is an indispensable condition for this "pacification."
Such is the strategy of American imperialism in the Middle East. The major roles in the area are assigned to Israel and, more recently, to Iran. But the role of "reasonable leader" of the Arab world has devolved on Saudi Arabia (the same role that is played, perhaps on a more modest scale, by Ethiopia in East Africa), which has been integrated into the general picture. The strengthening of the military potential of these countries can leave no doubt about this.
And the whole structure, naturally, rests on the basic principle of peaceful coexistence between Washington and Moscow.
Because the recent Egyptian-Syrian initiative shook up certain plans, it has become urgent for Washington (and Moscow) to reestablish calm in the Middle East. The hectic voyages of Nobel War Prize winner Henry Kissinger (Moscow, Cairo, Riyadh, Tel Aviv, Amman, Peking) testify to that.
For the partial oil cutoff, while it scarcely bothers the United States (at least directly), was not greeted with great enthusiasm by Washington's European allies.
Nevertheless, although small divisions may appear, the interests of the North American and European capitalists overlap sufficiently for them to agree on a common strategy.
Moreover, from the imperialist point of view, the spectacle of the Arab states defying the authority of the world's great powers must in no way be encouraged, for it could trigger a growing mobilization of the Arab masses, despite the fact that the Arab regimes are not aiming at any such thing.
It has been noted recently -and the figures demonstrate it-that the oil companies are experiencing a profit bonanza. In Europe and the United States profits for 1972 went up by 60-80 percent in comparison with 1971. The boom of the Petrofina company during the last two or three years is one example (although the oil discoveries that company made in Angola have something to do with its growth).
Taking account of the devaluation of the dollar, and in spite of the price adjustments obtained by the oil-exporting countries, a metric ton of crude oil cost 930 francs in 1972 as against 1,040 francs in 1971. What explains the increased profits while the buying cost has declined is that distribution prices have gone up, under the pressure of the Belgian Petroleum Federation. Anything that is thought to be scarce will be expensive, so it is quite lucrative for the oil companies to start talking about an oil shortage. Furthermore, it might be recalled that in 1968 the Arab oil-producing states received $0.70 on each barrel of oil, while the oil companies' profits and the fiscal income of the consuming states was running at about $6.
Because European capitalism is more severely affected by the reduction in the export of Arab oil, it will seek to exacerbate competition among the oil-producing states by turning to various countries like Iran (look at the Ibramco business, for example, or the visit of four Belgian government ministers to Iran), but it will also try to affect a "benevolent neutrality" in the Arab-Israeli conflict. This in no way involves challenging the existence of the Zionist state, but rather seeking a new status quo. No doubt Israel will have to make certain concessions-like reopening the Suez Canal, which both Europe and the Soviet Union desire- that would allow the Arab states to recoup some of their lost prestige among their own peoples by presenting the new status quo as an Arab victory. The huge diplomatic square dance that has just begun is aimed at finding just such a compromise.
The utilization of the "oil weapon" by the Arab feudal and bourgeois classes is limited to one goal: to establish an international relationship of forces more favorable to them in order to make gains internally in relation to the Arab masses. If that objective is achieved, the oil spigots will open up again. Until that happens Europe may get a little chilly, but it won't freeze.
As for the rights of the Palestinian people, a theme the Arab leaders talk about often enough, they will no doubt once again be used as bargaining chips and will be sold out. But then again, how can these rights ever be granted without the triumph of the socialist revolution in the whole Middle East, in the Arab countries and in Israel as well?